Never Say Never
As this amazing year winds down, it seems more and more logical that light volume chop is likely to continue. But never say never with the Bulls having such a big target of 25,000 just above. The odds of that occurring are quickly diminishing, but you never want to rule out the power of a big round number. Futures are pointing to a bullish open, but volume is anemic and likely to decline quickly after the morning flurry of activity. If you continue to hold market risk, stay focused on price and guard against complacency. Although it may appear unlikely, this record-breaking year could still have a trick or two up its sleeve.On the Calendar
Thursday’s Economic Calendar gets going at 8:30 AM Eastern with International Trade in Goods & Jobless Claims. The goods deficit is expected to slightly narrow to $67.7 billion in November vs. October’s reading of $68.1. Jobless Claims forecasters see a decline 240K vs. last week 245k print as demand for labor remains very strong. At 11:00 AM is the EIA Petroleum Status Report which if not forecast but the trend has been showing a slight drawdown in supplies helping to bolster the energy sector. After that, there are several reports unlikely to move the market as well as several Bill Announcements.
There are nine companies expected to report today, mostly considered penny stocks and very unlikely to have any market effect.
Action Plan
Although I have been under the weather, I have continued to keep very close tabs on the market. So far this week light volume and choppy price action have reigned supreme. The question is will that continue as trading this year rapidly winds down. Logic would say yes but with Dow 25,000 only 225 points away a bullish push is not out of the question. After all underestimating the Bulls this year would have been a mistake of a lifetime. Having said that I think its still very wise to be very cautious in such light volume market conditions.
Rather than adding risk ahead of another long weekend, I will be more focused on building shopping lists for next year, taking profits and protecting capital.
Trade Wisely,
Doug
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